Hello Dosto, Aaj baat karengey American Recession ke baare main jisse Housing Recession bhi kaha gaya, kya tha kaise hua, aur iska effect poorey world per kyoun padha kyoun ki aksar dekha gaya hai ki jab America ki economy girti hai toh poori duniya ki economy gir jaati hai, aisa kyoun yeh sab jaanegey aur ek aur baat isse slimier hi maine ek article likha The Great Depression woh bhi padhe kaafi bhadiya article hai aur bahut kuch aapko jaane ko milega.

Toh isse poorey event ko samjhne ke liye hume basics se start karna hoga taaki aapko simple way main samaj main aa jaaye.

American Recession - Worst Recession in US History - Hindi


Basics

Subprime Lending 

Toh yeh Subprime Lending kya hai? Lending ka matlab hum sab ko pata hai iska matlab hota hai udhaar dena. Aur Prime Lending ka matlab hota hai ki kuch log ameer hotey hai toh unko bank ke taraf se kaafi aaram se loan mil jaata hai because unhe pata rehta hai ki yeh banda loan chuka dega. Aur itna hi nahi kyoun ki bank ko in ameer insaano per kuch zyaada hi bharosa hai is liye bank unko aur zyaada loan deta hai.

Ab Subprime ka matlab hota hai ki kisi ko bhi loan de dena matlab kisi ko bhi, na toh uss bande ka koi background check kiya jaata hai na hi financial detail check ki jaati hai kuch nahi bus loan de detey they aur isse hota yeh yeh hai ki yeh log loan chuka nahi paate. Aur yehi main reason bana American Recession ka.

Credit Defualt Swpas (CDS) 

Ab yeh CDS kya hai? Agar isko simple way main kahe toh yeh ek tahra ka insurance jaisa hota hai, matlab koi bhi insaan agar kisi cheez main invest karta hai toh woh humesha yeh dekhta hai ki woh insure hai ya nahi. Toh yeh CDS ek contract hota hai protection buyer aur protection seller ke bich main.

Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO)

Maan lo aapne agar loan liya  toh bank toh aapko aise hi loan de nahi dega bank aapko kahega yeh paper laao yeh security do, toh aap bank ko koi security detey hai toh isse kehtey hai Collateral. Debt ka matlab hota hai karza aur Obligation ka matlab hota hai aapka daaitva.

So what is CDO is all about? So CDO is one type of bond or you can say one type of security. Yeh security bank ne banaai aur badi badi companies, institute aur countries ke beech bechi gayi. So CDO is all about security, jo logo ne loan liya tha toh uski security mili thi uska paper banaya gaya jise kaha gaya CDO. And one more thing CDO ka insurance kiya gaya CDS dwaara toh yeh dono saath saath chaltey hai aur kaam kartey hai.

Quantitative Easing 

Agar koi bhi company doobti hai toh government saare share kharid leti hai aur iske badle paisa deti hai taaki liquidity maintain reh sake. Kyoun ki jab bhi koi financial crisis hota hai toh Liquidity ka sab se bada problem ho jaata hai matlab paisa nahi aata aur agar paisa nahi aaya toh paise ki value geer jaaygi.

Toh government kya karti hai ki woh bonds, shares yeh sab kharidti hai aur company ko paisa deti hai taaki company phir se khadi ho sake.

Bailout

Isse samjhne ke liye main aapko Lehman Brothers ka example dunga, toh jab Lehman Brother dooba tha toh George Bush ke paas do raaste they yaa toh inko jail main daal do ya phir inhe piasa de kar phir se inhe khada kiya jaaye, lekin George Bush ne inhe paisa diya taaki yeh company phir se khadi ho sake. Economics main kya hota hai ki agar ek badi company doobi toh guarantee hai ki iske piche aur companies doobegi ek tahra ki chain rehti hai economics main. Toh yaha government kya karti hai ki companies ko paisa deti hai taaki woh phir se khadi ho sake aur isi ko kehtey hai Bailout. yeh similar hai Quantitative Easing se.

Toh jitni bhi cheeze humne uper padhi yeh sab ne mil kar American Recession (Housing Crisis) create kiya.

Main Causes

Loose Monetary Policy and Low Interest Rate

American bhale hi super power ho duniya ka lekin America main kai baar recession aa chuka hai. The Great Depression, 1953 main aaya, 1976 main phir se ek recession aaya, WTC tower per attack se phir se economy geer jaati hai. Toh America ke saath yeh hota rehta hai. Lekin yaha kya hua tha ki Federeal Reserve ne apna interest rate ko ghata diya ab iss wajah se kaafi paisa aaya aur kaafi saara pisa jaane bhi laga.

Kuch countries ke paas itna paisa hota hai ki unhe invest karna padta hai bahut saari cheezo main, toh sab se bhadiya prospect hai investment ke liye America, America main countries invest karna is liye bhi pasand katey hai kyoun ki return kaafi accha milta hai, toh countries ko lagta hai ki America main agar invest karengey toh woh secure hai.

Financial Deregulation 

1999 main President Clinton ne Glass-Steagall Act of 1993 ko end kar diya. Iss act main tha yeh ki Commercial Bank, Investment bank aur, Insurance sector yeh teeno separate hongey aisa isse Act main tha. Lekin 1999 main ek naya Act laya gaya Graham Leach Biley jis main yeh 3 ko mila diya gaya.

Iss act ka Recession main bahut bada main role hai Graham Leach Biley Act ke aane ke wajah se Recession ki bunidya padna shuru ho gayi thi. Chaliyeh isko thora deep main samjhtey hai.

For example ek ghar hai jo ek prime family ko kharidna hai, toh woh family contact karegi uss area ke broker ko, ab broker kya karega ki woh bank ko contact karega ab broker ne jis bank ko contact kiya hai woh commercial bank hai. Broker bank se yeh kahega ki ek family hai jisse ghar chaiyeh loan se toh aap paise do.

Commercial bank badle main security maangega toh jo family ko ghar chaiyeh woh security paper jisse mortgage paper bhi kehtey hai provide karegi broker ko ab broker yeh security paper provide karega bank ko. Toh ab yaha problem kaha ho raha sab toh sahi se jaa raha hai. Problem tab hoga jab Investment bank bich main aa jaayga.

Investment bank karta kya hai ki agar kisi ko bahut jaldi aur accha return chaiyeh toh woh investment bank ko contact karta hai, aur investment bank alag alag jaghao per paisa invest kartey hai jisse return kaafi accha aata hai. Aur normally investment bank main badi institutes aur badi countries invest karti hai.

 Ab Investment bank yaha kya karta hai ki woh CDO banata hai aur jaise maine kaha investment bank main badi countries aur badi companies invest karti hai ab jab yeh log invest bank main invest karengey toh yeh log security maangegey. Toh investment bank yaha inko ek securtiy deta hai jiska naam hai CDO. AB yeh CDO kisse milkar bana hai yeh mortgage paper ke collection se milkar bana hota hai.

Ab in CDO ko insurance diya gaya badi badi companies ne isko insurance diya, aur jaise hi logo ne dekha ki badi badi companies ne isko insure kiya hai toh logo ne CDO kharidna shuru kar diya.

Ab jin countries aur companies ne Investment bank main invest kiya tha un per pressure aana shuru ho gaya isse, aur kaha ki hume aur CDO do toh ab yaha per Investment bank ne Commercial bank ko bola ki hume aur CDO do, yaha per Commercial bank ne broker ko bola ki aur families dhundo taaki family ke mortgage paper se hum CDO banaayengey toh broker prime family ko dhundhega lekin ek time aayga ki Prime family khatam ho jaaygi sab toh ameer nahi hai na.

Toh ab broker kya karega ki Subprime family ko dhundhega Subprime family matlab woh log jo loan ke liye qualify nahi kartey. Ab Subrpime family main koi bhi ho sakta hai kisi ko bhi loan di jaa sakti hai, toh aise logo ko loan diya gaya jinki koi guarantee hi nahi hai. iske baad audit hua aur audit main yeh nikla ki aise logo ko loan diya gaya hai ki jinhone koi security hi proivde nahi ki.

Toh countries investment bank se keh rahi hai ki mujhe aur CDO chaiyeh, investment bank commercial bank se keh raha hai ki mujhe aur mortgage paper do, commercial bank broker se keh raha hai ki mujhe aur family do taaki woh paper de. Ab broker subprime family ko bol raha hai ki loan le lo.

Subprime family waalo ne laon le li aur loan chukaa bhi rahe they, lekin phir ek waqt aaya ki in families nahi loan chukana band kar diya. Kyoun ki aapne aise logo ko loan diya hai jo capable nahi hai.

Ab kyoun ki Subprime waalo ne loan chukana band kar diya hai toh ab commercial bank unke ghar hathyaana shuru kar dega. Ab laakho subprime families ne ghar liye they toh commercial bank ne sab ke ghar hathyaana shuru kar diya.

Ab kyoun ki commercial bank ne itne saare ghar hathyaa liye they jiske wajah se ghar ka ek bhandar ho gaya tha aur ghar ke price uper jaane ki bajay niche jaane lagi. Ab yaha per prime families ne jo ghar liye they uske bhi price niche jaane lagi thi toh prime families ne bhi loan chukana band kar diya.

Toh yeh sab milakar ho gaya Financial crisis, aur yehi tha American Recession (Housing Crisis). Jis jis ne loan liya tha un sab logo ne loan chukana band kar diya.

Globalization

Global Financial System har cheez internet se judi hai saari information internet se connected hai aur internet ke wajah se hi kaafi logo ne invest kiya tha. Ab Global Financial System aisa hai ki har ek sab ek dusre se connected hai har country ek dusre se connected hai toh yeh chain hai, agar ke doobega toh isse connected jo jo bhi hongey woh sab doobengey.

After Effects


  • Iske effect toh bahut bada tha aur yeh Great Depression ke baad sab se bada American Recession tha jo 18 months tak chala (Dec 2007 - June 2009) aur 1929 Great Depression ka asar sirf America tak hi tha lekin yeh jo hua tha iska asar poori duniya per pada.
  • Paisa aana band ho gaya ab jo genuine they unko paisa chaiyeh tha toh unko bhi bank mana kar deti thi loan dene se.
  • Ko bhi crisis aata hai toh sab se pehley sab se bada problem hota hai Unemployment, kaafi saare log unemployed ho gaye kyoun ki kaafi saari companies bankrupt ho gayi
  • Iss crisis ki wajah se financial market main itna panic phel gaya tha jis jise ne bhi jitna paisa invest kiya tha sab nikal liya aur jo bhi risky bonds they usko bhi sell kar diya, toh jo bache kuche bonds they woh bhi sell karne lage toh government ko yeh chinta hone lagi ki kahi stock market bhi fall down na ho jaaye.


Toh yeh tha poora Article American Recession per i hope aapko yeh article accha laga hoga.

Thank you for reading.